Cardinals shoot for needed series win in Milwaukee
Baseball Betting Lines
09/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It took a lot longer than expected, but Milwaukee reliever Trevor Hoffman finally picked up his 600th career save. The St. Louis Cardinals would have preferred that he waited a few more days.
The Cardinals will try to rebound tonight for a series win as Jamie Garcia tries for a fourth straight winning start in the finale of a three-game set with the Brewers at Miller Park.
Hoffman began the season as Milwaukee's closer and with 591 career saves, the most all-time, but struggled early on and eventually lost his role to John Axford. However, with the Brewers long out of the playoff race, manager Ken Macha has given the 42-year-old some opportunities to close out games.
Last night's save, as Hoffman locked down a 4-2 Milwaukee win, was his third since Aug. 18 and helped him reach the milestone.
"Accomplishments like this are shared among a lot of people, and I think it just validates the work you put in and the ballplayer that good things can happen," Hoffman said.
Casey McGehee put the Brewers ahead for good with a two-run single in the fifth inning, driving in three runs total on three hits. Prince Fielder also drove in a run for Milwaukee, which had lost six of seven coming in.
Chris Narveson picked up the win, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out nine over seven innings.
Yadier Molina and Colby Rasmus each drove in a run for the Cardinals, who had won three of four and remained six games back of Cincinnati for first place in the National League Central. They are also 5 1/2 games off the pace in the NL Wild Card race.
Kyle Lohse took the loss, yielding four runs in five innings.
"Tough way to lose. It's frustrating to give up the two-out hits again," Lohse said.
The Cardinals hope that Garcia has better luck tonight, a safe bet given that the 24-year-old is 3-0 with a 0.86 earned run average over his last three starts. After posting two straight scoreless outings that spanned 14 1/3 innings, Garcia was charged with two runs over 6 2/3 frames in beating the Reds on Friday.
The left-hander is 13-6 with a 2.35 ERA this year, and that includes a loss to the Brewers on Aug. 17, even though he allowed just three unearned runs over six innings. Garcia is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA in five lifetime meetings with Milwaukee, four of those starts.
Chris Capuano counters for the Brewers and he is coming off a tough loss to Philadelphia on Friday. The 32-year-old southpaw allowed just a run over five innings, but got no support in a 1-0 setback.
Capuano is 2-3 with a 4.62 ERA in 19 games this year, four of those starts. He is 4-5 with a 5.59 ERA in 13 career games against the Cardinals, all but one of those starts.
Milwaukee and St. Louis have split 14 meetings this year, with the Brewers winning six of the last nine meetings.
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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