FCS Season Preview: Great West
NCAA Football Betting Lines
08/29/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - And for our next magic trick ... we're going to pick the winner of the Great West Football Conference.
That's not easy to do with the way the five-team conference in the Football Championship Subdivision has been bunched up in recent seasons.
There's been a different champion in each of the past four seasons, and last year's race was particularly close. No team was better than 6-5, no team worse than 4-7, and UC Davis reigned with a 3-1 conference mark, followed by North Dakota, South Dakota and Southern Utah at 2-2 each and Cal Poly, the 2008 champion, in last place at 1-3.
UC Davis probably would have been a clear favorite to repeat as champion this season had its terrific quarterback, Greg Denham, not decided to forgo his final season to pursue a career in the ministry. Nonetheless, Great West coaches picked the Aggies first in their preseason poll.
Cal Poly has the most returning starters among conference teams, but can it go from worst to first after disappointing in coach Tim Walsh's first season last year?
Southern Utah, behind All-America wide receiver Tysson Poots, believes it will win the title, but that's something the Thunderbirds have never done.
North Dakota probably has a better shot than South Dakota because of its young talent, but who knows what will happen in this back-and-forth conference? Count everybody in ... and nobody out.
History is on the side of UC Davis and Cal Poly, but if Southern Utah is ever going to knock down the door, it's this season. The Thunderbirds are 6-20 in Great West games since conference play began in 2004, with last year's 2-2 mark their best one. Poots says his team has to play better in pivotal conference games.
"Now I think that we know we can play with the teams that we play against," he said. "We know that we're as big as them and sometimes as fast as them. It takes that mental focus to bring you to the top sometimes."
Following is a team-by-team breakdown of the 2010 Great West Football Conference race.
The Sportsbook Betting Lines's predicted order of finish:
1. Southern Utah 2. UC Davis 3. Cal Poly 4. North Dakota 5. South Dakota
Offensive Player of the Year: WR Tysson Poots, Southern Utah
Defensive Player of the Year: CB Asa Jackson, Cal Poly
1. SOUTHERN UTAH THUNDERBIRDS (5-6 overall; 2-2 Great West)
COACH: Ed Lamb (9-13 in two seasons at Southern Utah)
STARTERS RETURNING: 14 (7 offense/7 defense)
OFFENSIVE STAR: WR Tysson Poots, Sr. (85 receptions, 1,081 yards, 15 TDs)
DEFENSIVE STAR: CB Colin Pretlow, Sr. (82 TT, 4 INTs, 7 PBU, 1 FR, 2 FF)
OTHER KEY PLAYERS: QB Brad Sorenstam, So. (BYU transfer) QB J.J. Mayer, R-Fr. RB Major Gray, Sr. (121 carries, 490 yards, 7 TDs) RB Austin Minefee, Jr. (99 carries, 544 yards, 1 TD; 23 receptions, 229 yards, 4 TDs) RB Decker Alexander, Jr. (injured last season) FB Tui Siliva, Sr. (8 receptions, 51 yards) WR/PR Fesi Sitake, Sr. (79 receptions, 848 yards, 9 TDs; 14.3-yard punt return average, 1 TD) WR Jared Ursua, Jr. (26 receptions, 239 yards, 2 TDs) TE Abbel Aiono, Jr. (13 receptions, 105 yards, 1 TD) LT Brock Christensen, Jr. LG Zach Brackus, So. C Gavin Farr, So. RG Trevor Schauerhamer, Jr. RT Brandon Beddes, Jr. NT Nick Garcia, Sr. (22 TT, 2.5 TFL) DT Cody Larsen, So. (30 TT, 5.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks) DE Cody Larsen, So. (27 TT, 2 sacks) OLB Akeem Aniofowoshe, Sr. (68 TT, 3 PBU, 4 FR, 1 FF, 1 blocked kick) MLB Troy Bunting, Sr. (54 TT, 3 TFL) MLB Drew Willard, Jr. (60 TT, 3 TFL, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 2 FF) SS Erron Vonner, Jr. (68 TT, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 2 FR, 1 FF) SS Tyson Turley, Jr. (28 TT, 1 blocked kick) FS Matt Holley, So. (26 TT, 1 INT, 1 FR) CB Dion Turner, Jr. (61 TT, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 FF) CB Myles Crawford-Harris, Jr. (29 TT, 3 PBU, 1 FR, 1 FF) PK Brock Miller, R-Fr.
OUTLOOK: The Thunderbirds are working to keep inexperience on the offensive and defensive lines from holding them back. Of course, that's a major concern for any team. The 6-foot-5, strong-armed Sorensen appears ready to replace QB Cade Cooper, who threw for 2,988 yards and 31 touchdowns last season. Sorensen's transition is helped by a wealth of talent at the skill positions. Wide receiver tandems don't get much better than Poots, a nominee for the Walter Payton Award, sponsored by Fathead.com, and Sitake, who's also a standout punt returner. Top RBs Gray and Minefee are back, as is 2008 rushing leader Alexander, who was injured last season. Southern Utah gets into a lot of shootouts, and that's something the defense hopes to change. The Pretlow- led secondary is particularly experienced, allowing Aniofowoshe to move from safety to linebacker. In fact, the Thunderbirds are a deeper team all around, giving them hope of winning their first Great West title. They were the only conference team to beat UC Davis last season, but have to visit their California rival on Oct. 30
2. UC DAVIS AGGIES (6-5 overall; 3-1 Great West)
COACH: Bob Biggs (130-66-1 in 17 seasons at UC Davis)
STARTERS RETURNING: 14 (8 offense/6 defense)
OFFENSIVE STAR: RT Mark Tos, Sr.
DEFENSIVE STAR: DE Eric Sobotka, Sr. (32 TT, 5 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 FF, 1 blocked kick)
OTHER KEY PLAYERS: QB Randy Wright, R-Fr. QB Austin Heyworth, So. (7 of 9 for 82 yards and 2 TDs) RB Joe Trombetta, Sr. (119 carries, 395 yards, 4 TDs; 30 receptions, 206 yards, 1 TD) RB Josh Reese, Jr. (68 carries, 375 yards, 2 TDs) FB Ishman Anderson, Jr. WR/PR Sean Creadick, Sr. (39 receptions, 466 yards, 5 TDs; 4.7-yard punt return average) WR Elon Wyatt, So. TE Dean Rogers, Sr. (29 receptions, 326 yards, 2 TDs) LT Wesley O'Brien, R-Fr. LT Sean Davies, So. LG Jimmy Kunkel, R-Fr. LG Ivan Perez, So. RG Al Doiron, R-Fr. RG Ray Wilburn, So. DT Jacob Maxson, Jr. (36 TT, 7.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 1 FR) DT Andrew Benjamin, Sr. (23 TT, 3.5 TFL) LB Dozie Amajoyi, Sr. (50 TT, 2 sacks) LB Marshall Congdon, Sr. (33 TT, 3 TFL, 1 FR) SS Danny Hart, Sr. (53 TT, 4 QBH, 3 FR) SS Byron Gruendl, So. (23 TT) FS Kevyn Lewis, So. (30 TT, 5 TFL, 2 sacks) CB Marcus North, Sr. (missed last season) PK Sean Kelley, Jr. (12 of 15 FG, 52 long) P Colton Schmidt, So. (39.1-yard punt average)
OUTLOOK: The big question is whether the Aggies can replace QB Greg Denham, a two-year starter. Wright has been named the starter for the Sept. 4 opener at Cal. Great West rivals also are well aware of Heyworth. When Denham was injured against Portland State last season, Heyworth stepped in and led a fourth-quarter rally to claim conference offensive player of the week honors. The Aggies lost seven all-conference players in addition to Denham, who made the second team. The versatile Tombretta has led the team in rushing each of the past three seasons and Reese raised his play last season. The loss of WRs Chris Carter and Bakari Grant is significant, with Creadick now the go-to receiver. Tos is perhaps the best offensive lineman in the conference, although the run game struggled last season. The graduation losses included LB Mike Morales, the Great West Defensive Player of the Year. Sobotka hopes to generate a consistent pass rush. Kelley was named the Great West Preseason Special Teams Player of the Year. Four of the Aggies' first five games are on the road.
3. CAL POLY MUSTANGS (4-7 overall; 1-3 Great West)
COACH: Tim Walsh (4-7 in one season at Cal Poly; 121-89 in 19 seasons)
STARTERS RETURNING: 19 (11 offense/8 defense)
OFFENSIVE STAR: QB Tony Smith, Sr. (112 of 291 for 1,618 yards, 15 TDs and 8 INTs; 113 carries, 230 yards, 5 TDs)
DEFENSIVE STAR: CB/PR Asa Jackson, Jr. (48 TT, 3 TFL, 2 INTs, 6 PBU; 15.5-yard punt return average)
OTHER KEY PLAYERS: QB Andre Broadous, So. FB Jake Romanelli, Jr. (107 carries, 492 yards, 2 TDs) FB Jordan Yocum, Sr. (115 carries, 459 yards, 1 TD) Slotback David Mahr, Jr. (16 carries, 48 yards, 1 TD) WR Dominique Johnson, Sr. (43 receptions, 741 yards, 6 TDs) WR Eric Gardley, Sr. (11 receptions, 203 yards, 1 TD) RT Art Munoz, Sr. (injured last season) RG Will Mitchell, Sr. C Hal Kelley, Sr. LG Maurice McClure, Jr. LT Scott Winnewisser, Jr. DT James Chen, Sr. (27 TT, 2.5 TFL) DT Sullivan Grosz, R-Fr. NG Erich Klemme, Jr. (38 TT (5.5 TFL, 2 sacks) DE Kyle Murphy, Jr. (Santa Rosa transfer) DE Matt Singletary, Jr. (Baylor transfer) DE Gavin Cooper, Jr. (29 TT, 6.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 3 PBU) DE Brandon Roberts, Jr. (25 TT, 2 PBU) DLB Kenny Jackson, So. (58 TT, 4.5 TFL, 2 FR) LB Marty Mohamed, Sr. (93 TT, 8.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 3 PBU) LB Johnny Millard, R-Fr. S Scottie Cordier, Sr. (38 TT, 4 INTs, 2 PBU) S Greg Francis, Jr. (32 TT, 3 INTs) CB Bijon Samoodi, So. (44 TT, 1 INT, 1 PBU) CB Nico Molino, So. (Northern Arizona transfer) P/PK Chris Pinto, Sr. (8 of 13 FG, 42 long)
OUTLOOK: The way Walsh's first season in San Luis Obispo ended must have been particularly damaging to the Mustangs' psyche. Or has it been motivation all offseason? After six straight seasons of at least seven wins, the Mustangs ended 2009 with a four-game losing streak, and they allowed 97 points over the final two games. The defense should bounce back with a better front seven, getting linebacker-turned-defensive-end Cooper back from an injury, Murphy and Singletary transferring into the program, and Jackson and Mohamed returning as a solid combination at linebacker. Jackson is a shutdown cornerback and just might win a game as a punt returner. The spread triple-option offense troubles opponents because it relies heavily on fullbacks, and bruisers Romanelli and Yocum combined for 951 yards rushing a year ago. Mobile QB Smith, who's been pushed by Broadous, gets back a big-play threat in Johnson (17.2 yards per catch). After going 0-6 on the road last season, the Mustangs could be decimated by a five-week road swing to Texas State (Sept. 18), McNeese State (Sept. 25), Fresno State (Oct. 2), Old Dominion (Oct. 9) and Southern Utah (Oct. 16), which is their first Great West game.
4. NORTH DAKOTA FIGHTING SIOUX (6-5 overall; 2-2 Great West)
COACH: Chris Mussman (12-9 in two seasons at North Dakota)
STARTERS RETURNING: 14 (6 offense/8 defense)
OFFENSIVE STAR: TB Mitch Sutton, So. (149 carries, 689 yards, 6 TDs; 27 receptions, 280 yards, 1 TD)
DEFENSIVE STAR: CB/KR Dominique Hawkins, Jr. (61 TT, 3.5 TFL, 2 INT, 4 PBU, 1 blocked kick; 17.7-yard KO return average)
OTHER KEY PLAYERS: QB Jake Landry, Sr. (178 of 301 for 1,968 yards, 12 TDs and 9 INTs; 85 carries, 217 yards, 2 TDs) FB Catlin Solum, Jr. RB Jake Miller, Fr. WR Ryan Dressler, Sr. (23 receptions, 150 yards, 1 TD) WR Chris Anderson, Jr. (17 receptions, 124 yards, 1 TD) WR Greg Hardin, R-Fr. LT Creighton Schroyer, Sr. LG Keith Queoff, Sr. C/LG Ian McGurran, So. RG Emmett Lynch, So. RT Joe Kleason, R-Fr. RT Connor McKendry, Jr. (injured last season) WR Chris Anderson, Jr. (17 receptions, 124 yards, 1 TD) DE Broc Bellmore, Jr. (15 TT, 4 QBH, 4 blocked kicks) DE Ross Brenneman, So. (25 TT 3.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 2 PBU) NG Ty Boyle, Sr. (19 TT, 2 FF, 2 blocked kicks) ILB Curtis Dublanko, Sr. (59 TT, 6.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FC) ILB Paul German, Sr. (32 TT, 2 TFL, 1 FR) OLB Ryan Kasowski, Sr. (35 TT, 7.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks) OLB Ross Cochran, Sr. (33 TT, 4.5 TFL, 3 QBH, 1 FR) FS Kris Ankenbauer, Sr. (56 TT, 3 PBU, 2 FR) SS Joel Schwenzfeier, Sr. (59 TT, 8 TFL, 5 INT, 3 PBU, 1 FF) CB Mitch Kudrna, Jr. (32 TT, 3 PBU) P Brett Cameron, So. (44.9-yard punt average)
OUTLOOK: The Fighting Sioux responded well against a tougher schedule last season and were competitive within Great West play. QB Landry was solid in replacing Danny Freund and Sutton was named Great West Newcomer of the Year with a superb freshman season. Both will operate behind a veteran offensive line, although Landry has to develop chemistry with some new starting receivers. The defense is a veteran group and Mussman is stressing more of an aggressive approach out of the 3-4. Kasowski is a leader at linebacker and Hawkins is one of the Great West's top defensive backs. The kicking game will change after Brandon Hellevang earned second-team all-conference honors as both a place-kicker and punter last season. If the offense takes the next step, the Fighting Sioux should be a title factor.
5. SOUTH DAKOTA COYOTES (5-5 overall; 2-2 MVFC)
COACH: Ed Meierkort (44-23 in six seasons at South Dakota; 99-78 in 15 seasons overall)
STARTERS RETURNING: 12 (7 offense/5 defense)
OFFENSIVE STAR: RB Chris Ganious, Jr. (148 yards, 828 yards, 4 TDs)
DEFENSIVE STAR: ILB Adam Broders, Jr. (78 TT, 4 TFL, 1 PBU)
OTHER KEY PLAYERS: QB Dante Warren, Jr. (12 of 15 for 127 yards) QB Brandon Gorsuch, Jr. (Arizona Western transfer) FB Erik Helland, Jr. WR Tom Flanagan, So. (45 receptions, 530 yards, 4 TDs) WR Dustin Nowotny, Jr. (31 receptions, 337 yards, 2 TDs) WR Will Powell, So. (14 receptions, 200 yards, 4 TDs) WR Matt Kerswill, R-Fr. TE London Landry, Sr. (24 receptions, 248 yards, 3 TDs) LT Tom Compton, Jr. RG Brent Johnson, Jr. C Tim Ross, So. RT R.J. Polley, Jr. DT Jesse Weisbrod, Jr. DE Sidney Bazemore, Jr. ILB Shea Williams, Jr. (67 TT, 1 PBU) OLB Andrew Meier, Jr. (13 TT) SS Shane Potter, Jr. (67 TT, 2.5 TFL, 2 PBU) FS Jim Thompson, Jr. (59 TT, 2 INTs, 5 PBU) CB Marquis Butler, Jr. (Utah State transfer) CB Dametrius Turner, R-Fr. DB Dion Price, Jr. (20 TT, 3 PBU) PK Kevin Robb, Fr. P Cole Zwiefelhofer, So. (41.4-yard punt average)
OUTLOOK: After the defense dropped off last season, Meierkort has brought in a new defensive coordinator, Chuck Morrell, who had success on the NAIA level. The Coyotes used the spring to get adjusted to Morrell's style and now are ready to build on 2009, which ended with wins over Southern Utah and Cal Poly. The defensive line has all new starters and will be vulnerable. The defensive leaders are at linebacker (Broders and Williams) and in the secondary (Potter and Thompson). The Coyotes are young all around, with a lot of influential juniors. They include Ganious, the Great West rushing champion last season. He will have to carry the offense while either Warren or Gorsuch settles in at quarterback. The Coyotes had a 4-1 home record in each of the past three seasons. Their road schedule is difficult, including season-opening visits to UCF (Sept. 4) and Minnesota (Sept. 11).
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fredy Montero scored twice, including the game- winner in stoppage time, as Seattle Sounders FC beat the Chicago Fire, 2-1, on Saturday night in Major League Soccer at Qwest Field. John Thorrington converted a
<< Arnaud leads Kansas City to 2-0 win at L.A.
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Davy Arnaud had a goal and an assist to lead the
Kansas City Wizards to a 2-0 win over the Los Angeles Galaxy on Saturday night
in Major League Soccer at The Home Depot Center.
Arnaud scored his third goal of th
<< Dixon's late score lifts 49ers over Raiders
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Anthony Dixon's one-yard touchdown run late in
the fourth quarter helped the San Francisco 49ers take a 28-24 win over the
Oakland Raiders in the third preseason game for both squads.
Dixon finished the ga
<< Millwood dominant as O's blank Angels
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Bell hit a two-run homer and Kevin
Millwood pitched his best game of the season, as the Baltimore Orioles shut
down the Angels, 5-0, in the second test of a three-game series.
Millwood (3-14) ga
<< Arizona pummels struggling Giants
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Reynolds and Adam LaRoche each
homered and Daniel Hudson continued to impress with seven sturdy innings as
Arizona downed San Francisco, 11-3, in the second of three meetings at AT&T
Par
Itoshima, Japan (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hideto Tanihara closed with a six-under 66 Sunday to earn a one-stroke win at Vana H Cup KBC Augusta. Tanihara finished at 22-under-par 266. The victory was his ninth on the Japan Golf Tour, but his first
da Silva cruises to Zambia Open title >>
Ndola, Zambia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Adilson da Silva closed with a one-under 72
Sunday to cruise to a four-shot win at the Zambia Open.
The Brazilian, who was runner-up in the last Sunshine Tour event, finished the
54-hole event at 17-under
Marlins' infield dirt to provide Miami a challenge >>
CORAL GABLES, Fla. (AP) -When No. 13 Miami opens its season Thursday, it's probable that some of the Hurricanes will be bloodied and scraped by the time the game ends.And it might not be Florida A&M's fault, either.The Hurricanes' roughest oppon
2010 World Basketball Championship update - August 29th >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
Group C Halftime: China 41 Ivory Coast 33 (Ankara)
Group D Halftime: Canada 43 Lithuania 33 (Izmir)
Group A End of 1st Quarter: Jordan 17 Angola 16 (Kayseri)
Group B End of 1st Quarter : USA 23 Slovenia 11 (Istanbul
Giants wrap up series vs. D'Backs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Giants rookie Buster Posey is a big reason for the club's
success, but a forearm strain has been bothering the young catcher lately. He
is expected to be back in today's lineup versus the Arizona Diamondbacks in
the fin
Since the late 1990's, MySportsbook.com has been an online sportsbook / poker room / casino that focuses on quality.. MySportsbook caters to the experienced sports fan who values reliability and accuracy, with great attention to detail. MySportsbook's success over the past 3 years has made them the envy of the sports gambling industry. There are hundreds of sites appearing all over the Internet claiming to be the next best sportsbook online, each one is trying to use the same marketing techniques as MySportsbook originated.
If you want to try the most stylish and reliable type of online sportsbook, go with MySportsbook. Most online sportsbooks give you live odds and plenty of games and events to bet on, at MySportsbook they'll give you that and more. While perfection may be a lofty goal, MySportsbook attempts to achieve that goal. All sorts of ways to bet on football, football betting, Super Bowl betting lines.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football sportsbook needs.
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.