FIBA World Basketball Championship Preview - Group D
Basketball Betting Lines
08/25/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
Country: Canada
FIBA Ranking: 19
Head Coach: Leo Rautins
Key Players: Joel Anthony, Andy Rautins
Overview: It's been sometime since Canada has made an impact on the world stage and since the departure of Steve Nash from the national program, it's been a team in transition.
Strengths: A team in the truest sense of the word, this squad is as cohesive a unit to be found in the entire tournament. The selfless play relates to the defensive end of the floor where the undersized squad has improved tremendously in its development to become a more recognizable basketball nation.
Weaknesses: Having no leader on and off the floor could raise problems when the times get tough, as who the Canadians turn to late in games remains to be seen. Though defense is high on its priorities, being undersized on the interior will be a challenge the Canucks will have to overcome.
Tournament Expectations: With the loss of Canadian veterans Carl English and Jesse Young to injury, this Canadian team will be as inexperienced as any sent to a major competition in recent memory. If pre-tournament tune ups suggest anything, this team is capable of being the second or third seed in its group at the very worst - only time will tell.
Country: France
FIBA Ranking: 15
Head Coach: Vincent Collet
Key Players: Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw
Overview: For the past decade, the basketball world has awaited the arrival of the French on the world stage as their potential seemed to be second to none. If one were to collect all the NBA players who hail from France and put them on a team, les 'Bleus' would have one of the best squads on the planet. But with the likes of Tony Parker, Joakim Noah, Mikael Pietrus, Ronny Turiaf and Rodrigue Beaubois all out for this summer's tournament, the fortunes of France hangs in the balance.
Strengths: With so many of their top talent left off this edition, the French have looked to some of its youth for help from their domestic league. That youthful vitality has proved to be the Frances' biggest strength as their athleticism and length are amongst the top in the world.
Weaknesses: With most of their top guards unavailable to play, the French will be hard pressed to find a stable point guard to man the ship. The youth at the lead guard position isn't quite up to the task of running a team and it shows, especially in half court sets where France struggles to score.
Tournament Expectations: Based on potential, this is one of the very best teams in the tournament but this has been the case for les Bleus' for almost every tournament they've entered this decade. Much like Canada, it would come as no surprise if this team grabbed a spot to join the Round of 16 or if they missed the cut entirely.
Country: Lebanon
FIBA Ranking: 24
Head Coach: Tab Baldwin
Key Players: Fadi El Khatib
Overview: Having shocked the world at the 2006 World Championship in Japan by beating Venezuela and France, the Cedar Trees will be no surprise to any team now that their name is known. And with the help of head coach Tab Baldwin, this is one of the most underrated lower seeds in the tournament.
Strengths: This is a team that plays with a lot of passion and embraces the underdog role as well as any nation in the competition. The veteran leadership coach Baldwin relies on will be a steadying force for a Lebanese side that holds a number of fresh faces.
Weaknesses: Certainly not the deepest team, the Cedar Trees will rely heavily on star player Fadi El Khatib, who is coming off an injury and won't be firing on all cylinders. The back court will be in tough as guard play is certainly not the Lebanese forte.
Tournament Expectations: The expectations for this team aren't wavering on the ridiculous as it hopes to build on its 2006 success. A likely first round exit hinges on whether or not they can manage to upset a few more teams this time around.
Country: Lithuania
FIBA Ranking: 6
Head Coach: Kestutis Kemzura
Key Players: Linas Kleiza
Overview: After a disappointing showing at EuroBasket 2009, the Lithuanian contingent remains a work in progress as new head coach has basically stuck with the squad sent to Poland last year. There also remains some unrest in the organization of Lithuanian basketball as the directing staff has all but one member.
Strengths: Having so many of the veteran players unavailable, the Lithuanians will turn to their youth for this tournament. They own a plethora of fast- faced, fun to watch, three-point shooters, highlighted by newly-signed Toronto Raptor Linas Kleiza. Filling up the net should be Lithuanians forte as their young gunners all have a knack to score.
Weaknesses: With star Lithuanian point guard Sarunas Jasikevicius opting to sit out this tournament, there's a looming hole at the lead guard for the Lithuanians. A rash of injuries to a number of the big bodies has left the team depleted up front as overcoming injuries is the biggest obstacle they'll face in the group stage.
Tournament Expectations: The future looks bleak but with the European event destined for their home land in 2011, this tournament should give an indication where Lithuanian basketball is headed. In such a mediocre group, there should be no reason why the European squad can't claim a berth to the Round of 16 and possibly onto a quarter final matchup.
Country: New Zealand
FIBA Ranking: 13
Head Coach: Nenad Vucinic
Key Players: Kirk Penney
Overview: For the better part of the decade, the Kiwis were led by former coach Tab Baldwin to impressive victories, even claiming fourth place at the 2002 World Championship. Under Baldwin's long time assistant Nenad Vucinic, the Tall Blacks have finished with three successive top-10 finishes at world events and hope this collection of wily veterans can help school the new era of New Zealand basketball.
Strengths: Offense is definitely the strong suit of the Tall Blacks as given their high-post offense along with the deadly combination in the backcourt of Penney and Phil Jones, there will be no shortage of points for the Kiwi's. Having a variety of scoring options make them one of the highest octane offensive teams in the tournament. There is a good balance between youngsters and experienced veterans on this team as the older generation has assisted the development of the youth who look to be the future of Kiwi basketball.
Weaknesses: In one word - toughness. The Tall Blacks struggle on the defensive end as they can't stop perimeter penetration very well and protect the paint sparingly. The inability to defend will cost them a shot to be an elite team as their offense is already atop the best in the world.
Tournament Expectations: The potential is there for this team to make a deep run in the tournament as they have a solid balance of youth and experience that should bode well for them. Anything less than the Round of 16 would be a disappointment, where a shot of being in the Final Eight is a true reality.
Country: Spain
FIBA Ranking: 3
Head Coach: Sergio Scariolo
Key Players: Marc Gasol, Rudy Fernandez, Juan-Carlos Navarro
Overview: The defending champs return to the World Championship much like they left the last edition, without its star big man, Pau Gasol, and hungry for gold. Its silver medal performance at the 2008 Olympics only feeds the hunger more as the fastest growing basketball power house hopes to add to its list of accomplishments.
Strengths: One of the most balanced teams in the world, the Spaniards bolster one of the deepest teams as they have players at every position very capable of playing at a high level. The mixture of size, talent and athleticism has created a culture of winning basketball and this rendition appears to be no different.
Weaknesses: There are very few holes in the Spanish armor but if there was one weak link it would have to be the lack of perimeter defense. In Fernandez, Navarro and Ricky Rubio, the Spaniards have a collection of talented guards, none of which being the most physical player or the most adept to staying in front of his man. They'll rely heavily on the help defense of the bigs to negate the shaky defense the guards are likely to play.
Tournament Expectations: With such a complete team, there's no reason to believe this squad doesn't have a legitimate shot of taking gold once again.
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<< FIBA World Basketball Championship Preview - Group C
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
Country: China
FIBA Ranking: 9
Head Coach: Bob Donewald
Key Players: Yi Jianlian, Wang Zhizhi, Sun Yue
Overview: China will be without the services of superstar Yao Ming as he
continues to battl
<< FIBA World Basketball Championship Preview - Group B
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
Country: Brazil
FIBA Ranking: 14
Head Coach: Ruben Magnano
Key Players: Leandro Barbosa, Anderson Varejao, Tiago Splitter
Overview: Under the guidance of new head coach Ruben Magnano, who had
pr
<< FIBA World Basketball Championship Preview - Group A
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
Country: Angola
FIBA Ranking: 12
Head Coach: Luis Magalhaes
Key Players: Joaquim 'Kikas' Gomes, Olimpio Cipriano
Overview: For years, the Angolan team has been associated as the African
nation C
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Japan adv
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CALGARY STAMPEDERS (6-1) at BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS (1-6)
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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