Packers' O-line expects to keep Rodgers upright
Football Betting Lines
09/10/2010 -
GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - The Green Bay Packers' offensive line got off to such a bad start last year that it's even serving as a punchline for the satirical newspaper The Onion.
In its tongue-in-cheek NFL preview this week, the paper's website wrote, ``After giving up 50 sacks in 2009, Green Bay's offensive line appears to have forgiven Aaron Rodgers for whatever he did.''
The Packers can't hide from the pass protection failings that nearly derailed their season last year - they actually gave up a league-worst 51 sacks, as backup Matt Flynn wasn't completely spared from the carnage - but they're using their failures as a rallying point going into Sunday's regular season opener at Philadelphia.
``As we go through our offseason evaluations, sit and study things, where we need to improve, that's obviously at the top of the list,'' offensive coordinator Joe Philbin said. ``We can't go through another year like that. And so, yeah, I think for our staff, our players, there's hopefully some resolve and determination that let's get this thing back to where it needs to be.''
Center Scott Wells said the line has something to prove.
``We don't want to start the way we did last year,'' Wells said. ``Really, we played basically two different types of offense. The first half of the year was not very good and the second half was a lot better. So we want to go out from the get-go and play better than we did in the second half of last year. So we want to build on that, and move forward and improve at the same time.''
The Packers' biggest reason for optimism is right tackle Mark Tauscher, back at the spot that has belonged to him for most of the past decade. Tauscher knows the Packers' offense is loaded with talent and potential, and could be one of the league's best if the offensive line holds up its end of the bargain.
``It's now a fresh season, new start, and we realize we need to play better than we did last year to give our offense a chance to be as successful as we can be,'' Tauscher said.
Tauscher played a critical role in stabilizing the line last year, beginning the season out of football while he recovered from a knee injury and then re-signing with the Packers in October. He eventually reclaimed his starting spot after the Packers' ill-fated attempt to make Allen Barbre the starter.
After giving up a jaw-dropping 41 sacks in their first nine games, they allowed 10 in their final seven of the regular season.
Now Tauscher is back for a full training camp and season, feeling better than last year.
``Obviously, we've got a right tackle playing for us that's played a lot of football here in Green Bay,'' Philbin said. ``And no disrespect to the one we had last year, but we were trying somebody out in essence at right tackle. We've got a veteran player there who's played a lot of games in the National Football League.''
Offensive line coach James Campen even says Tauscher - a player never known for his bodybuilder-like physique - has slimmed down.
``He's in shape and he looks good,'' Campen said. ``He looks as good as he ever has. His weight's down, so I'm sure he's very confident.''
Another reason for optimism: Rodgers wasn't sacked once in the preseason, and their preseason opponents weren't all playing vanilla defensive schemes.
``Cleveland pressured us quite a bit, and they did a good job picking it up,'' Campen said. ``Now, if you ask them, was it always perfect? No. Was the quarterback hit a couple times? Yes. And they want to eliminate those as well.''
Sunday's game at Philadelphia will be a good test for the line's confidence. The Eagles are known for their exotic blitzes in recent years, and Packers coaches don't know if the more base-oriented defensive scheme they showed in the preseason is an indication of what they'll do in the regular season.
``You know going into the first game that a good amount of it is going to be unscouted, it's going to be a lot of things they didn't do in preseason they're saving for the regular season,'' Wells said. ``A lot of it's going to be relying on your experience, of the guys around you, and myself to make the right calls.''
And a strong performance against the Eagles would be a big first step for five guys out to prove they're no longer a league punchline.
``Just knowing what that was like and what that felt like and the criticisms, which were all just and correct, they don't want to go back to that,'' Campen said.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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