Pats, Bengals meet in matchup of '09 division winners
Football Betting Lines
09/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Though the New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals both finished atop their respective divisions in 2009, both teams enter Sunday's season-opening showdown at Gillette Stadium with their share of skeptics and an unfulfilled feeling even after last year's accomplishments.
The 2009 Patriots recorded a seventh consecutive season of double-digit victories and captured a sixth AFC East title over that impressive era, but the team's quest to regain supremacy of a conference it had ruled for much of the past decade came to a swift and bitter end with a revealing 33-14 home loss to Baltimore in last January's Wild Card Playoffs. That one-sided defeat, in which New England was bullied for 234 rushing yards by the more-physical Ravens, has triggered a growing sense that the once-mighty Pats are now a decaying dynasty about to enter an inevitable phase of transition.
While the Patriots may be on the decline, it's still hard to overlook a team that has a former NFL MVP and three-time Super Bowl champion at quarterback (Tom Brady), plus a pair of prolific wide receivers (Randy Moss, Wes Welker) and one of the league's all-time mastermind game-planners in head coach Bill Belichick at its disposal. With that accomplished core still on hand, New England remains a dangerous foe, although how the club is able to withstand the absences of key contributors such as Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins (holdout) and defensive end Ty Warren (season-ending hip injury) may ultimately determine whether the Pats can continue their amazing run of success.
The Bengals produced one of the league's biggest turnarounds a year ago, reversing a dreadful 4-11-1 campaign in 2008 into a 10-win regular season that saved the bacon of head coach Marvin Lewis. But like their Week 1 opponents, Cincinnati's deficiencies were exposed in an opening-round playoff loss in its own building.
The 24-14 setback to the up-and-coming New York Jets divulged the Bengals' most glaring weakness, a lack of viable offensive playmakers to complement standout running back Cedric Benson and flashy wide receiver Chad Ochocinco. Cincinnati went to interesting lengths in an effort to resolve the issue, bringing in controversial wideout Terrell Owens just prior to training camp.
Putting Owens, a five-time All-Pro who'll turn 37 in December, opposite the equally-flamboyant Ochocinco gives the Bengals the unquestioned most colorful pass-catching duo in the league. The team also hopes the addition pays off on the field, as Cincinnati will be attempting to end a dubious trend of failure in seasons that have followed playoff runs.
The Bengals haven't reached the postseason in back-to-back years since 1981-82, and in their four most recent playoff trips have failed to achieve a winning record the subsequent season.
SERIES HISTORY
New England holds a 13-8 lead in the all-time series with Cincinnati, winning three in a row in the series since the Bengals scored their last victory in the series, a 23-17 win at home in 2001. The Patriots were 34-13 winners when they visited Paul Brown Stadium in Week 4 of the 2007 season, and earned a 35-28 decision when the teams last met in New England, in 2004. The Bengals are 0-4 in New England since last winning there in 1986.
Belichick is 12-3 in his career against the Bengals, including 4-1 while with the Patriots. Lewis is 0-3 against both Belichick and the Patriots as a head coach.
WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL
Most of the fans and media will likely be fixated on how the combination of Ochocinco (72 receptions, 1047 yards, 9 TD) and Owens (55 receptions, 5 TD) performs, but Cincinnati's success in 2009 was often predicated on how effective Benson (1251 rushing yards, 6 TD, 17 receptions) was between the tackles. The Bengals were 6-0 when the powerful back cranked out over 100 yards during the regular season, and he could find more lanes to run through this year with opponents having to show more respect to the pass. Owens may be getting up in years and has the reputation of being a drain in the locker room, but he's still a legitimate big-play threat and a sizeable upgrade over last year's starter, Laveraneus Coles. The Bengals added another weapon for steady quarterback Carson Palmer (3094 passing yards, 21 TD, 13 INT) via the first-round selection of tight end Jermaine Gresham in April's draft, with the Oklahoma product providing a receiving presence the team hasn't seen at the position in ages. Wide receiver and fellow rookie Jordan Shipley (3rd Round, Texas) should see immediate time working out of the slot, while promising sophomore Bernard Scott (321 rushing yards, 5 receptions) may take over regular third-down back Brian Leonard's (84 rushing yards, 30 receptions) duties with the latter presently sidelined with a sprained left foot.
Benson could be in for a banner day if the New England defense performs like it did in January's playoff loss to the Ravens, and the year-ending loss of the sturdy Warren is certainly a tough blow. The Patriots still have a top- tier stopper in the middle in two-time Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork (43 tackles), while the addition of physical rookie inside linebacker Brandon Spikes (2nd Round, Florida) alongside 2008 Defensive Rookie of the Year Jerod Mayo (103 tackles, 1.5 sacks) also figures to aid against the run. There are questions to answer in the secondary and in regards to the pass rush, however. With top cover man Leigh Bodden (shoulder) also done for the season, New England will field a green starting cornerback tandem of 2010 first-round pick Devin McCourty and second-year pro Darius Butler (35 tackles, 3 INT) on Sunday, while outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain (55 tackles, 10 sacks) is the only proven pressure-producer up front.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
New England ranked third in the NFL in passing offense (283.8 ypg) last season and got a nice bounce-back year out of Brady (4398 passing yards, 28 TD, 13 INT), who made a successful return from a serious knee injury suffered in the 2008 opener to start every game and register the second-highest yardage total of his brilliant career. The star signal-caller gave his team a scary moment after being involved in an auto accident on Thursday, but reportedly walked away unscathed and will be back in his customary role of slinging passes to Moss (83 receptions, 1264 yards, 13 TD) and favorite target Welker (1348 yards, 4 TD), whose 123 catches last year were the second-most in league history. The prolific slot receiver is a quick healer as well, having rehabbed an ACL tear suffered in the 2009 regular-season finale in time to participate in Sunday's game. His snaps may be limited, though, if capable understudy Julian Edelman (37 receptions, 1 TD) is able to play through an ankle injury that has the second-year surprise listed as questionable for the opener. Mankins, one of the game's best guards, definitely won't be available due to his nasty contract dispute with the organization, and neither will intended replacement Nick Kaczur after the converted tackle underwent back surgery in August. Their absences don't bode well for a running game that was non-existent for parts of last year and is headed up by two aging backs in 34-year-old Fred Taylor (269 rushing yards, 4 TD) and third-down specialist Kevin Faulk (335 rushing yards, 37 receptions, 3 total TD).
Cincinnati's 2009 resurgence also wouldn't have been possible without the stout play of a defense that surrendered the fourth-fewest yards in the league (301.4 ypg) despite being without its best pass rusher, Antwan Odom (19 tackles), for most of the year because of a torn Achilles he incurred in Week 6 of last season. The seventh-year end is back to lend support to a strong secondary headlined by the outstanding cornerback combo of Leon Hall (71 tackles, 6 INT, 24 PD) and Johnathan Joseph (69 tackles, 6 INT, 20 PD) and was further bolstered by the high-risk offseason pickup of Adam "Pacman" Jones. The troubled ex-Titan and Cowboy was out of football a year ago, but showed little rust while playing well in the preseason. Veteran Dhani Jones (113 tackles, 3.5 sacks), Cincy's top tackler in each of the past two seasons, is the leader and on-field coordinator of a quality linebacking group that also contains rugged run-stopper Rey Maualuga (63 tackles, 1 sack) on the strong side.
FANTASY FOCUS
There are plenty of appealing fantasy choices in this intriguing Week 1 clash. The Patriots' terrific trio of Brady, Moss and Welker are always must-starts whenever they're in the lineup, although owners of the latter should prepare for a potential drop-off while he works his way back from his injury. New England's situation at running back is far more fluid, with Taylor, Faulk and the fumble-prone Laurence Maroney (757 rushing yards, 9 TD, 14 receptions) all possibilities to be the lead guy, so it's best to sit back and let the scenario play itself out early on. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski annually ranks among the top point-getters at his position and averaged two field goals per game at home last year.
Benson stands as Cincinnati's most reliable option and should be used in all formats, while both Ochocinco and Owens clearly merit consideration in what shapes up as a juicy matchup against New England's young corners. Upgrade Palmer as well for this week, but Gresham has more value right now as a dynasty-league stash than as a consistent weekly contributor. The Bengals defense is worth drafting, but there may be better alternatives out there with a high-powered offense on tap for this week.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
It's been quite some time since the Patriots entered a season with so much uncertainty, and there's little question the Bengals have the personnel capable of exposing their opponents' perceived weak spots. Ochocinco and Owens hold a distinct experience edge on New England's raw but talented corners, and the dynamic duo should have their way unless the Pats can mount a consistent pass rush -- a big 'if' as well. That should help open up space for Benson, and the Bengals have shown to be a tough out whenever their workhorse back has a big day. While the Patriots are certainly able to prevail in a shootout, that still may be a tall order against a tough Cincinnati defense that will do just enough to prevent Brady and company from going ballistic.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Bengals 24, Patriots 20
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Super Bowl 2009 Betting
Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositionsUnderdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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Betting the NFL preseason
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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